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posted Dec 7, 2011, 11:33 PM by Jeff Davies   [ updated Dec 7, 2011, 11:34 PM ]
I don't know if transcriptions are done manually anymore, but every time you feel like you're having a bad day, think about the person having to transcribe MMR calls and presentations!  Another Jim Bob classic, as expected, today.  Not really a ton of new information, although even someone fluent in Jim Bob-speak like myself couldn't decipher the net Tcf number he discussed based on current drilling.  Like to continue to hear talk of lower well costs.  Big news I guess is that DJ appears likely to be delayed until early Jan.  I don't view delay too materially, but Dec. vol probably gets hit, but there are (a) lots of momo-longs and (b)a number of shorts who don't believe JB could have 'found a 200 square mile area of hydrocarbons in the middle of a mature basin', so stock could be choppy in near term.

I've drank the JB Kool-Aid long ago.  Maybe its because I've followed this saga since the NFX/XOM days and I want a happy ending (who doesn't?), but I think all the players involved are showing too much confidence for DJ production/flow rate to be anything other than huge success.  I imagine many are in the stock simply for the DJ news event, but I see the next several weeks as two-part related to DJ....once a flow test and production are successful, a development plan has to be announced.  Despite the cash its sitting on, MMR doesn't have the balance sheet to continue to punch $100 million holes in the ground, so I expect some news on a JV, or can't imagine why they won't become a target for CVX.  In addition to the geological data, MMR's proprietary deep drilling and high pressure completion knowledge would seem very valuable assuming this play concept is as big as advertised.

"I can conclude my story by saying people say what's Davey Jones going to flow.  I said if I knew what Davey Jones is going to flow at, i'd be at the beach.  So what i'll tell you is I'll see you at the beach."  JB Moffett (12/7/11)

Once again, JB is speaking in tongues that few understand, but I think he is telling all the non-believers that we are on the eve of their coup de grace.  He knows this sucker is gonna flow and its gonna flow big. 

Will be interesting to watch gassy e&p news react to another potentially huge gas deposit.