To say ATP is complicated to dig into is an understatement. A complex organizational & capital structure is compounded by numerous financings in the form of Net Profit Interests (NPIs) and overriding royalty interests (ORRIs). To add even more complexity to the mix, ATP recently began entering into prepaid oil swaps. All of these transactions are done in the name of survival.
From my point of view, being long ATP equity is not much more than a bet on oil, and even then it may be a losing bet. All of the company's increased PV-10/standardized cash flow the last 3 yrs is from price revisions, while reserves have stayed flat despite massive spending. Based on the forecasting I've done, there appears to be little FCF to repay debt and indeed significant additional NPIs and ORRIs will be needed to fund cash gaps. Indeed, ATP's deepwater strategy may be 'rolling over.'
The attached spreadsheet gives a comprehensive look at the company, its properties, reserves, capital structure, and financials.
If you'd like a working copy of the model, email me at email@example.com